Monday, March 07, 2005

Global Warming and Kyoto Protocol

Global Warming describes an increase in over time of the average temperature of the Eath's atmosphere and oceans. Use of the term "global warming" generally implies a human influence — the more neutral term climate change is usually used for a change in climate with no presumption as to cause and no characterization of the kind of change involved.
Most climate models predict that the temperatures will increase in the future, however, the precise magnitude of these increases is still uncertain. A range of +1.4°C to +5.8°C for the temperature change between 1990 and 2100 is the estimate. The most common global warming theories attribute temperature increases to increases in the greenhouse effect caused primarily by a human-generated carbon dioxide.
But every theory has its opponents. Same is true for global warming. In the midst of the propaganda generated by the global warming theorists, few people are aware that there are still question marks over the theory. Between 1940 & 1970, the temperatures had gone down though the carbon dioxide levels were increasing. Should this be considered as an anomaly or is there more to it?
I quote an eminent Astrophysicist Sallie Baliunas, in a speech delivered at Hillsdale College on February 5, 2002, "...about 80 percent of the carbon dioxide from human activities was added to the air after 1940. Thus increased carbon dioxide in the air cannot account for the pre-1940 warming trend. That trend had to be largely natural. Then, as the air's carbon dioxide content increased most rapidly, temperatures dropped for nearly 40 years. And it seems that human effects amount at most to about 0.1 degree Celsius per decade -- the maximum increase in warming seen after the 1970s."
Also, as has been pointed out, carbon dioxide levels often increase after warming rather than before. Is this also an anomaly that can be discarded? According to some, there is nothing to panic about the increasing global temperatues because the earth goes through heating and cooling phases from time to time as proved by the Medieval Warm Period (around 1000 AD) and the Little Ice Age(around 1600 AD).
The Kyoto Protocol proposes binding greenhouse gas limits for developed countries, but there are considerable disagreements about the extent to which the Kyoto Protocol will be able to address the issue of greenhouse gases and global warming even if it is successfully implemented. Current estimates predict that even if successfully and completely implemented, the Kyoto Accord will reduce global temperature by between 0.02°C and 0.28°C by the year 2050 - a tiny fraction of the projected increase. Even some of the defenders of this accord agree and view it as a first step with more political than practical importance. Several economic analyses have been made that show that the KP is more expensive than the global warming it avoids.
Another argument is that if the developed countries start curbing carbon emissions by using less carbon-based fuels, it would drive the cost of such fuel down thus making it even more attractive to the developing nations.
Only time will tell whether the Kyoto Protocol is successful or not. Meanwhile, the jury is still out.

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